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SOVEREIGN MARITIME INTELLIGENCE / DEFENSE

DEFENSE

White paper — defense and coastal security

Closing the maritime awareness gap.

Real-time satellite surveillance for maritime defense and coastal security. Maritime forces do not primarily lack sensors — they lack a persistent, independently observed, operationally timely layer that converts wide-area detection into prioritized information.

Leo Pauly, PhD · Grace Samosir · July 2026

01 — Introduction

The operational picture remains incomplete.

Maritime defense and coastal security depend on awareness across vast, strategically important waters. Yet despite extensive investment in AIS, radar, aircraft, uncrewed systems, and satellites, the picture is not complete. What is missing is a layer that converts wide-area detection into prioritized information for existing command systems and response assets.

Real-time satellite surveillance provides that layer. Coordinated satellite fleets, onboard edge-AI processing, rapid communications, and integration with existing maritime systems turn orbital observations into trusted alerts — reducing search areas, prioritizing contacts, and cueing the appropriate crewed or uncrewed asset.

The value of maritime surveillance lies not in how much is observed, but in whether relevant activity can be identified and acted upon in time.

02 — Part I

Why maritime domain awareness remains incomplete.

A

Jurisdictions at ocean scale

A state's territorial sea extends up to 12 nautical miles; its Exclusive Economic Zone can reach 200 nautical miles, carrying sovereign rights over fisheries, offshore energy, and other marine resources. The scale is the challenge — the U.S. EEZ alone exceeds four million square miles, larger than the land area of all 50 states combined.

B

An architecture that cannot verify itself

AIS, coastal and shipborne radar, patrol aircraft, UAVs, uncrewed systems, satellites, and enterprise MDA platforms together provide valuable awareness — but not a complete or continuously verified picture. AIS is cooperative by design: vessels can disable it, transmit misleading information, or operate without it. Authorities must distinguish the cooperative picture — where vessels report themselves to be — from the observed picture produced by independent sensors.

C

Contested waters and chokepoints

Strategic passages such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb concentrate commercial and military traffic in narrow operating areas, while threats emerge from wider approaches where AIS interference, spoofing, or deliberate non-transmission degrade the declared picture. In the Baltic, NATO launched Baltic Sentry in January 2025 after damage to undersea infrastructure — frigates, patrol aircraft, naval drones, and national assets working to identify suspicious activity before it reaches protected infrastructure.

D

Coastal enforcement and economic sovereignty

Indonesia's Bakamla monitors one of the world's largest archipelagic maritime areas with ten patrol vessels — its commander estimates 274 will be required by 2045. Satellite analysis identified a daily average of 241 Chinese maritime-militia vessels across monitored South China Sea features in 2025. In the U.S. Arctic, the GAO reported the Coast Guard could not assure continuous presence with existing capabilities. In each case, ships and aircraft exist — the persistent information to direct them does not.

The recognized maritime picture remains constrained by gaps between cooperative reporting, independent observation, and operational response.

03 — Part II

What is real-time satellite surveillance.

A distinct category between conventional Earth-observation imagery and operational maritime ISR. Unlike imagery collected for later analysis, real-time surveillance is organized around a standing mission — outputs include vessel location, timestamp, confidence, and position uncertainty, and with repeated observations, estimated course, speed, and predicted position.

The defining difference is the satellite's role. Rather than functioning as an imagery source, it becomes an active sensing node that contributes directly to the recognized maritime picture. Advances in edge-AI hardware and perception algorithms allow compact, energy-efficient processors to run computer-vision models onboard — identifying and prioritizing observations without first transmitting the complete image to the ground. An onboard intelligence layer, an operational brain for the satellite.

The value shifts from delivering delayed images to generating real-time operational alerts within the decision window.

04 — Part III

Integration into existing defense workflows.

Real-time satellite surveillance is not a standalone capability. Its value comes from strengthening the sensors, platforms, and command systems that defense and coastal-security organisations already operate — through two primary pathways.

Tactical tip-and-cue

A satellite detects a suspicious vessel across a wide area and generates an observation — location, timestamp, confidence, position uncertainty, and where available, estimated course and predicted search area. That observation is passed to a patrol aircraft, UAV, naval vessel, uncrewed surface vessel, coastal radar, or another satellite for closer investigation. The orbital detection reduces the area the tactical asset must search, letting limited platforms focus on prioritized contacts.

Integration into maritime command systems

Detections enter the MDA, intelligence, and common operational picture systems operators already use — compared against AIS, radar tracks, radio-frequency detections, intelligence reporting, watchlists, and historical vessel activity. No separate imagery portal, no manual scene inspection: the observation appears as a recognized sensor report with clear location, time, confidence, uncertainty, and source.

Orbital detections reduce the search area, strengthen the common operating picture, and direct existing assets towards priority contacts.

05 — Part IV

The future of real-time satellite surveillance.

No single commercial or ownership model will fit every government. Different nations require different levels of control, investment, and operational access.

A

Commercially provided services

Governments purchase detections, vessel tracks, or surveillance coverage from commercial providers without owning satellites. Faster access and lower upfront cost — but less control over tasking, capacity, data governance, and availability during periods of high demand.

B

Sovereign capability

Dedicated fleets under national control, with authority over tasking, mission priorities, data processing, and access. A nationally controlled fleet can be configured around territorial waters, an EEZ, strategic approaches, or critical infrastructure rather than providing global coverage.

C

Shared regional architectures

Neighboring states jointly fund and operate a regional architecture focused on shared seas, chokepoints, fishing grounds, or trade routes — distributing cost and improving information sharing while each nation retains control over sensitive data and operational decisions.

D

Hybrid architectures

Nationally controlled satellites combined with commercial services, allied data, and shared regional infrastructure — sovereign control over priority missions, external capacity for extended coverage or temporary operational demand.

Future architectures may be sovereign, shared, or commercially supported — but they should be configured around the operational priorities of the nations they serve.

06 — Conclusion

The immediate priority is integration and operational testing.

Define the alert product, establish latency and confidence requirements, connect it to an existing common operating picture, and measure its effect on cueing and asset employment. Real-time satellite surveillance strengthens — it does not replace — existing ships, aircraft, and command systems.