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PAPER
The argument, fully open
Maritime monitoring: time to detect the invisible.
The ocean economy is worth $1.5 trillion a year and carries 80% of global trade by volume. The system the world uses to watch it was never built for adversaries. This is the case for a new one.
01 — The blind spot
The ocean is the world's most important blind spot.
Over 80% of international goods by volume and 70% by value travel by sea. The ocean economy is worth $1.5 trillion a year — projected to reach $3 trillion by 2030 — employs over 30 million people, and supports nearly 3 billion livelihoods. The oceans span 361 million square kilometres, roughly 70% of Earth's surface.
We monitor almost none of it in real time.
02 — The AIS gap
AIS was built for safety, not surveillance.
Real-time maritime monitoring relies heavily on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) — a radio tool that lets vessels broadcast identity, location, speed, and direction. It works only when vessels cooperate. AIS can be spoofed, switched off, or simply never fitted, producing what the industry calls dark vessels.
The coverage gap is stark: recent studies show only 25% of global fishing activity is visible through AIS. Incidents at offshore facilities — fires, explosions — go undetected entirely. A significant share of critical maritime activity is either monitored too late or never seen at all, and the economic losses land on industry and governments alike.
Because of the sheer size of the oceans, we currently lack any real-time maritime monitoring capability at global scale beyond AIS. This paper makes the case for a new mechanism to plug that gap — and to shift maritime security from a reactive posture to a preemptive one, where incidents can be predicted before they occur.
03 — Why it is needed
Seven reasons the gap is no longer affordable.
Piracy
Maritime piracy drives ransom payments, cargo loss, vessel damage, higher insurance premiums, and costly rerouting that lengthens transit times and disrupts supply chains. Estimates put the cost to the global economy at around $25 billion a year. In one 2024 incident, Somali pirates hijacked the MV Abdullah in the Indian Ocean and held 23 crew hostage, releasing them only after a $5 million ransom. Piracy also targets offshore infrastructure — petro-piracy against oil and gas facilities causes significant additional losses. Real-time monitoring delivers on-time piracy alerts and the maritime domain awareness needed to curb it.
Dark-fleet collision risk
Dark vessels are increasingly used to move sanctioned cargo such as crude oil. Estimates put this dark, shadow, or ghost fleet at 600 to 1,400 vessels — roughly a fifth of the global crude tanker fleet — and project that ageing tankers will account for 11% of global tanker demand by mid-2025. These vessels are older, poorly maintained, and deactivate AIS to stay dark, making them invisible to authorities and to nearby ships. Over 50 maritime accidents involving dark-fleet vessels were reported in 2023–2024. Because these ships often lack adequate insurance, clean-up and repair costs fall on legally operated vessels — or on the taxpayers of the coastal states where accidents occur.
Market intelligence for investment firms
Real-time vessel tracking reveals shifts in shipping patterns and trade flows — congestion and volume on a busy route can signal economic activity ahead of the market. But AIS has become unreliable as spoofing spreads. Looking beyond AIS — combining shipping patterns with cargo classification — enables faster, more accurate supply-chain analysis, helps predict commodity prices and demand, and surfaces hidden flows such as illegal ship-to-ship transfers. For hedge funds and investment firms, advanced maritime intelligence beyond AIS is a route to data-driven decisions across global markets.
Maritime insurance
As AIS spoofing grows, insurers need more reliable ways to monitor covered vessels — an NYTimes investigation found numerous vessels falsifying locations while still insured by U.S. underwriters. Looking beyond AIS enables live threat analysis: insurers can dynamically assess when risk and exposure change in real time, adjust coverage accordingly, and pass live intelligence to policyholders to reduce claims. With an estimated $40 billion paid annually in maritime insurance premiums — and premiums set to rise 5–10% across 2025–2026 — even a fractional reduction in claims is worth millions.
Coastal security of Exclusive Economic Zones
One in five fish is caught illegally. Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing costs the global economy an estimated $26–50 billion a year, with governments losing $2–4 billion in tax revenue alone. Madagascar loses around $80 million annually; Argentina around $2 billion. The core difficulty is scale: an EEZ is vast and dark vessels are hard to catch. Indonesia patrols around 6 million km² — more than twice the Mediterranean — with 72 coastguard ships, while losing around $4 billion a year to IUU fishing. The UK's EEZ is 28 times its land area; for Kiribati the ratio is around 4,200×, for the Marshall Islands around 11,000×. Beyond direct losses, uncontrolled exploitation threatens food security, and monitoring is essential to counter drug and human trafficking and smuggling.
Environmental protection
In May 2023 the ageing tanker Pablo (built 1997) exploded off Malaysia; the resulting spill potentially reached Indonesian shores, yet investigations found no owner information and no insurance to fund clean-up. As the number of ageing, uninsured dark vessels rises, such incidents will grow — with severe, unprecedented environmental consequences.
Defence
Maritime Domain Awareness is vital to national defence. Monitoring gaps in territorial waters can be exploited by non-state actors — in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the attackers entered via the sea route. Advanced MDA is essential to defend against maritime grey-zone aggression, espionage, and amphibious threats, and to detect anomalous vessels on a broad scale with timely alerts.
04 — Markets
Markets and use cases at a glance.
05 — The alternatives
The limits of today's alternatives.
Monitoring beyond AIS falls into two categories, and both fall short.
Region-based systems
Land and vessel radar, patrol vessels, aerial drones, surveillance aircraft — these lack long-range coverage and are costly. Anti-piracy measures alone run $212,000–$610,000 per voyage per ship; the Indian Coast Guard's 2024–25 budget is around $900 million.
Satellite imagery
This offers broader coverage but is typically available only on-demand and requires pre-tasking — you must already know where an incident is — and procurement takes hours to days, reducing the insight to a historical record.
For monitoring to matter, intelligence must arrive within seconds, in a concise, actionable form.
06 — Our vision
An advanced maritime monitoring system.
We are building a constellation of Low Earth Orbit AI-MicroSats to monitor the oceans continuously. Each satellite carries high-resolution (typically centimetre-scale) multispectral sensors and onboard Edge-AI to image the ocean, detect and classify vessels — regardless of AIS status — directly onboard the satellite, and transmit only the relevant data to Earth in near real-time. In future, we will uplink more advanced Edge-AI models to satellites already in orbit, expanding what the fleet can detect — from vessels to any floating object or infrastructure, including a fire on an offshore rig.
This system does not replace AIS or region-based monitoring. It bridges the critical capability gap in maritime domain awareness — enabling the shift from a reactive posture to a proactive one, and delivering truly comprehensive maritime monitoring.
Read the vision behind the technology